Minutes

AAII Orange County Chapter

Monthly Meeting, April 11, 2009

Balearic Community Center

1975 Balearic Dr.

Costa Mesa, CA  92626

 

President Bob Welge brought the meeting to order at 9 am. Beginning with preliminary announcements, Bob drew members’ attention to the availability of Chapter contact information and handouts for today’s talk on the back table, and of coffee at the 10 o’clock break. Bob acknowledged the efforts of the Chapter’s leaders: Facilities Chair Craig Stoddard, Vice President Ed Castleman, Treasurer Dave McMillin, and Bill Phillips, Hospitality Chair, for putting up signs and setting up the room.

Bob next announced the schedule of future chapter meetings.  The next meeting will be on May 9th, when Paul Rabbitt will discuss A Hybrid Approach: ETF Hedging and Stocks.  Following Paul will be a Roundtable on Picking Winning Stocks Using Web-based Screens and Leading Screening Criteria. The Roundtable will be held at Bob’s office, in the 2nd Floor Conference Room of the Valley Plaza Office Building, 9550 Warner Ave., Fountain Valley. Members wishing to attend are urged to RSVP Bob Welge at bobw@robertsfinancialmanagement.com – seating is limited!  Regular chapter meetings are held on Saturdays at 8:45am at Balearic Community Center. Further details on these future events and other Orange County Chapter information can be viewed on Bob’s website www.robertsgeneral.com.

 

Bob then introduced today’s speaker, Wade Slome, President and Founder of Sidoxia Capital Management – an investment management firm for investors with moderately-sized portfolios – and his presentation Beating the Market – Investing in Volatile Times.  Wade is a CFA and CFP, has an MBA from Cornell, and is author of How I Managed $20,000,000,000.00 by Age 32 (as a portfolio manager at American Century Investments) – all credentials that he put to work admirably in his presentation.

For anyone seeking a better understanding about the unprecedented market volatility over the past year, Wade provided, first, a clear and incisive picture of how it came about, and second, he offered his views of how to invest in it going forward.

How’d we get here. Over the last 30 years, interest rates trended ever downward, stimulating ever-looser lending that finally culminated in ‘putting lipstick on the mortgage pig,’ with the unavoidable and painful consequence of forcing the nation to go on a financial diet. The mortgage lipstick took the form of Credit Default Swaps (CDSs), characterized by Warren Buffett as “$500 trillion Weapons of Mass Destruction.”  What to do in response? – “You can always count on America to do the right thing…after they’ve tried everything else” (Winston Churchill). The response has been global is scope and taken the form of record low interest rates, and stimulus by cutting taxes, with hoped-for results of healing the banks, repair of consumer balance sheets, normalization of the TED spread, and stabilization of global CDS indices.

Investor pitfalls. (1) Paying fees that are too high (compared to a Vanguard fund with a 0.07% fee, say). (2) Chasing performance – a tendency to follow the herd as it’s being led to the slaughterhouse.

Winning tools. (1) Buy fear, sell greed. (2) Invest in products that have low fees, diversification, tax efficiency, and a long time horizon to take advantage of the power of compounding.

Stock analysis – combine Art and Science. Use screens to identify stocks with attractive sales, return on invested capital (ROIC), margins, earnings, debt/capital ratio, free cash flow – and that are self funding and are a leader in their industry. Look for stocks beginning a long runway of growth – examples are Google and Teva. Identify long term, major trends: Tech, Water, Green, Inflation, Aging Demographics, Globalization, and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A).

Wade espouses a long-term investing strategy of 3-5 years; it requires him to trade only once a week, on Mondays. When appropriate (high VIX, volatility), he will make lemons from lemonade by shorting and writing options with 3-5 month duration.

For those with questions or seeking further information, Wade can be reached at www.Sidoxia.com or 949-258-4322.

 

Following the conclusion of Wade’s talk, Bob adjourned the meeting at 11am.

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Recorded By Ed Sharman